Understanding Strength of Schedule

The concept of "strength of schedule" (SOS) has evolved into a significant talking point for NFL enthusiasts. Following the 2025 season, discussions about how opponents impact team success reached a fever pitch, largely due to the New England Patriots, who benefited from the easiest schedule in the league this century. As teams prepare for 2026, it is essential to examine which franchises are poised to benefit from favorable matchups and which are facing an uphill climb.


The Traditional Approach vs. Modern Metrics

Traditionally, analysts determine SOS by calculating the cumulative winning percentage of a team’s 17 opponents from the previous year. According to this metric, the Cleveland Browns currently hold the easiest path, largely because they are scheduled to face the NFC South—a division that failed to produce a single winning team in 2025.


However, looking solely at past performance can be misleading, as rosters change significantly during the offseason. To address this, analyst Warren Sharp utilizes a more forward-looking metric based on projected win totals from sportsbooks. When applying this standard, the landscape shifts:

  • Detroit Lions: Hold the easiest schedule based on win projections.
  • New Orleans Saints & Cincinnati Bengals: Maintain favorable positions under both metrics.
  • Cleveland Browns: Slip to the fourth-easiest schedule when considering current roster expectations.

Teams Facing the Toughest Challenges

For some franchises, the 2026 calendar offers little room for error. The Chicago Bears are widely considered a regression candidate, partly due to the intensity of their upcoming matchups. Whether measured by last year’s win-loss records or current betting projections, Chicago faces a significantly more grueling slate than they did in 2025.


The Arizona Cardinals find themselves in a similar predicament. After dealing with the league’s toughest schedule last year by DVOA, they are once again projected to face the most difficult path in 2026. Their schedule is compounded by a high volume of games against the Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers, as well as an inter-conference draw against the highly competitive AFC West.


Significant Shifts in Schedule Difficulty

Year-over-year changes in schedule difficulty can drastically influence a team's win-loss outcome. The Miami Dolphins are experiencing the most dramatic shift, moving from having one of the easiest schedules in 2025 to one of the most difficult in 2026.


Other notable fluctuations include:

«While some teams are entering a more demanding environment, others, such as the Ravens, Lions, and Titans, have seen their projected paths become considerably more manageable compared to the previous campaign.»

Teams with an Eased Path:

  • Baltimore Ravens: From No. 12 toughest to No. 6 easiest.
  • Detroit Lions: From No. 14 toughest to No. 1 easiest.
  • Tennessee Titans: From No. 2 toughest to No. 13 easiest.

Teams Facing Increased Pressure:

  • Chicago Bears: From No. 7 easiest to No. 6 toughest.
  • Dallas Cowboys: From No. 5 easiest to No. 4 toughest.